Eric Rosenthal’s NFL Week 11 Best Bets Against the Spread: Jetting Around and Fly Eagles Fly
As we approach Thanksgiving, certain teams make their playoff push while others start concerning themselves with off-season vacation plans. We can take advantage of motivation, injury situations, and analytics to make the best picks against the spread. For my NFL Week 11 best bets against the spread, we are going to take a look at one game from each of those categories and determine the best against the spread bets in order to make you some money and look like a champ in front of your friends.
Week 11 Best Bet Against the Spread No. 1: New York Jets +2.5 at Washington Redskins
While I’d love to get +3 instead of 2.5, I’m shocked that the bookmakers and betting public have any belief in a Redskins team led by rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins.
Do you know the last time that Washington has done the simple task of scoring a touchdown? It was over a month ago, on October 14th. They are an absolute disaster on offense and you can’t count on them to reach the end zone, even against the lowly Jets defense.
Trusting Sam “Seeing Ghosts” Darnold on the road is a tough ask, but they’ll at least score double-digit points which could be enough to win this game outright.
Week 11 Best Bet Against the Spread No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs New England Patriots
The best rule in gambling for the past 20 years has been to always bet ON the Patriots when they are coming off a bye or coming off a loss. This week, they are in both of those situations.
Why am I then taking the Eagles knowing that Bill Belichick is 9-2 against the spread off a bye on the road? Well, finally every single person in America knows how great the Patriots have been in this situation and it has greatly inflated the line.
That brings us to Doug Pederson, who drew up the Philly Special in the Eagles Super Bowl win and came up with such a great gameplan that Nick Foles dropped 41 points on the Pats. I expect some more creativity this week, even possible a Philly Special remix, that gets the Eagles a big play or two against this dominant Patriots defense.
New England would be absolutely thrilled to get a 3-point win on the road in a tough Philadelphia environment. If that happens, we still cash in at this greatly inflated line.
Take the Eagles +4 and remember that the bookmakers know how dominant Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been in this situation and have adjusted accordingly.
Week 11 Best Bet Against the Spread No. 3: Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Mexico City)
The Chiefs lost 35-32 in disastrous fashion to the Ryan Tannehill led Titans last week despite Patrick Mahomes throwing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Now for the first time since Mahomes took over as starting QB, the Chiefs find themselves in a must-win situation in the regular season. They cannot fall to 6-5 and risk missing the playoffs with their stud quarterback on a rookie contract.
Philip Rivers and this Chargers team have shown time and time again they will not win the big games and Monday Night Football in Mexico City is their biggest regular season test so far. I actually prefer the Chiefs Moneyline at about -200, but I can also see them totally rolling the Chargers as Philip Rivers throws a backbreaking interception just when it seems like he’s leading a comeback.
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and this Chiefs offense will find a way to put up enough points to win this game and cover the small four-point spread in a must-win game.