One of the easiest and most underrated ways to make money betting on football is in the player prop market. This week I’ll give out three of my favorite NFL player prop bets based on the research I have done.
NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 10 No. 1: Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Total Passing Yards: Over (-112) or Under 230.5?
At first glance, every casual bettor would look at this number and grab the under as fast as possible. After all, Mitchell Trubisky has been a complete disaster as the Bears starting quarterback, even making Chicago fans look back fondly at the Jay Cutler era.
But we have to bet with our minds, not our hearts. Even if we include his start against the Vikings where he got injured and threw only three passes, he has surpassed 230.5 passing yards in three of his past five starts!
The Lions defense is a passing funnel that has allowed the 2nd most pass yards in the league at 288.4 yards per game this season. For comparison, the San Franciso 49ers have allowed a league-low 138.1 passing yards per game. Despite his struggles, Mitchell Trubisky just has to continue what he has done this season against a terrible Detroit defense for us to cash in on the over.
It won’t be fun to watch, but let’s lock in OVER 230.5 passing yards at -112
NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 10 No. 2: Running Back: Frank Gore, Miami Dolphins
Total Rushing Yards: Over or Under (-112) 35.5?
Frank Gore is a future Hall-of-Fame running back and I mean no disrespect to him, but he just isn’t that good at football anymore.
It’s nothing to be ashamed of! He’s 36-years-old in a league where most running backs don’t even make it past 30. It’s clear at this point in his career that he’s no longer a lead running back despite being treated as one at the beginning of this season. The past two weeks he’s gone for nine carries and 34 yards against the Eagles and 11 carries for 15 yards against the Redskins. 3rd–round pick Devin Singletary has finally gained the role of lead back rushing 20 times for 95 yards last week.
Expect more of the same against the Cleveland Browns with Singletary taking most of the carries and Frank Gore just being rotated in every once in a while. We’ll cash in on under 35.5 yards before the books catch on to Frank Gore’s role change.
NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 10 No. 3: Receiver: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Total Receiving Yards: Over (-112) or Under 64.5?
This bet follows the same logic as betting the Trubisky over. Despite the Bears lack of offense, Allen Robinson has gone over this total three of the past five weeks and hit 62 yards against the Chargers to nearly make it four of five.
When asked what needed to be fixed about the Lions defense, Pro Bowl Cornerback Darius Slay stated, “The whole thing. There’s eleven of us out here so there’s eleven problems that need to be fixed.”
There’s very little reason to think those eleven problems will be fixed this week. Allen Robinson is an elite talent against a Lions defense that’s been giving up huge passing numbers week after week, I would be surprised if he couldn’t put up sixty-five yards to get us another prop bet win.
Eric Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor based out of Southern California. Driven by analytics, he looks for advantageous scenarios in all areas of life.