Week 14 NFL Player Props: Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen and the resurgence of Todd Gurley
Another week in the NFL means another fantastic opportunity to make money in the prop betting market. I’ve been taking copious notes of where I’ve gone wrong and where I’ve gone right this season and feel confident I can get back to going undefeated on my picks.
We’re shaking things up a little this week, focusing on 2 quarterbacks facing each other for the first time and an elite running back getting back in the groove.
Let’s build on some recent success and win some money in Week 14.
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Quarterback: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Total Passing Yards: Why we’re taking OVER 200.5
A lot of scouts and analysts who said Lamar Jackson wouldn’t be able to play quarterback in the NFL are looking very silly right now. The presumptive MVP has been getting it done on the ground and through the air while
leading his Ravens to a 10-2 record.
So why is Jackson’s player prop so low this week? He only needs to eclipse 200 passing yards to put us in the money.
The biggest reason may be that he’s coming off two straight sub-200 yard passing games. This had led bookmakers to drop his total to such a low number that we can take advantage of going the other way.
In week 13, Lamar Jackson threw for a paltry 105 yards, but this was against the record-breaking San Francisco 49ers defense that is allowing by far the least amount of yards through the air of any NFL team at just 134 per game.
The Bills have been pretty stingy against the pass themselves, but after allowing 355 yards to Dak Prescott last week, we can expect a decent performance out of the MVP.
Look for Lamar to hit Marquise “Hollywood” Brown on a deep ball or 2 as Lamar Jackson will be throwing in all 4 quarters of the this 10-2 vs 9-3 showdown.
Quarterback: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Total Rushing Yards: Why we’re taking UNDER 37.5
Josh Allen is an undisputed top 3 rushing quarterback in the league, with 430 yards and 8 touchdowns (more than Lamar Jackson!) on the ground in just 12 games.
Unfortunately for him this week, he faces what may be his toughest matchup of the year. The Baltimore Ravens defense practices day in and day out against the quarterback who is the greatest rushing threat this league has ever seen and should be well equipped to keep Allen relatively in check.
Another factor going against Josh is how well Baltimore consistently controls the time of possession. My data goes back to 2003 and no team besides the 2019 Ravens has ever controlled the ball for over 34 minutes per game. This leads to fewer possessions for opponents and fewer opportunities this week for Allen to rush the ball against a top-5 defense.
Expect some nice rushes from Josh Allen and maybe even a goal-line carry or two that can lead to a touchdown, but for him to finish with less than 38 yards he’d need to pick up on the ground for us to lose our money.
Running Back: Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams
Total Rushing Yards: Why we’re taking OVER 75.5
Nobody was louder than me about why you should avoid drafting Todd Gurley in fantasy football this season. I didn’t trust his knee or that Sean McVay would use him in the same way he has in the past. Now I’ll tell you why this specific week will be different.
The Rams season is basically on the line at home on Sunday Night Football against the Seahawks. At 7-5, they can’t risk losing this game and falling 2 games out of a wildcard spot with just 3 weeks remaining.
Los Angeles will look to get the ball to their best offensive player early and often. We may even see Gurley eclipse 20 rushing attempts for just the 2nd time this season.
TG has also looked better recently, surpassing 90 yards on the ground in 2 of his past 3 games, only failing against the elite Baltimore Ravens defense that I wrote about when discussing Josh Allen’s prop.
Seattle has been a top-10 rushing defense, but Sean McVay knows he can’t rely on Jared Goff to win LA’s biggest game since last season’s Super Bowl.
Todd Gurley will carry the ball approximately 20 times and break off at least one long run as he flies over his prop of 75.5 rushing yards.