Why Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are Eric Rosenthal’s NFC Championship Best Bet
NFC Championship Game:Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers——–>Click here for the full preview game
I’ll never forget the moment at the 2005 NFL Draft when Aaron Rodgers was asked whether he was disappointed when the 49ers passed on drafting him. His response: “Not as disappointed as the 49ers will be that they didn’t draft me.”
Those words have rung true as Rodgers has been arguably the best quarterback in the league since taking over the Green Bay Packers. Now he gets another chance to add to his legacy with another Super Bowl appearance and a victory over his home-town team that should have drafted him.
Green Bay’s last loss was a humiliating 36-8 defeat at the hands of the 49ers, which has really impacted this line moving it across the key number of 7.
Regular season results are overrated, as we saw the Chiefs score 51 points and destroy the Texans after losing to them in the regular season and trailing 24-0 in the 1st half.
In fact, the last time the Packers played an NFC West opponent in the NFC Championship, they had given up 36 points to them in the regular season, a blowout loss to the Seahawks. Although the Seattle won that playoff game due to an onside kick, it showed that beating Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs is nothing like beating them in the regular season.
While the 49ers defense gets all the headlines, numbers are more important than media attention. The great San Francisco defense gave up 18.8 points per game while Green Bay’s defense gave up just one more point at 19.8 points per game.
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Aaron Rodgers’ History of Playoff Losses and NFC Championship Odds
This is relevant because every playoff loss in the Rodgers era has been directly because of the defense. Here’s a quick summary of Aaron’s 7 playoff losses.
1) Defense gave up 45 points
2) Defense gave up 37 points
3) Defense gave up 45 points
4) Rodgers led game-tying drive, never got the ball again
5) Defense gives up a touchdown, an onside kick, another touchdown, and a 2-point conversion. Rodgers leads a game-tying drive and never gets the ball in overtime.
6) Led game-tying drive, never gets the ball again in an overtime loss.
7) D gave up 44 points
Loss after loss has been directly because of awful defensive play, but finally, the Packers have a defense that should hold it’s own in the playoffs.
Even if they don’t, Aaron Rodgers has lost by seven points or more just twice in 18 playoff games.
There’s plenty to talk about with Kyle Shannahan’s brilliant offensive schemes. He uses motion on 78% of plays to create mismatches everywhere on the field. Robert Saleh’s defense has been fantastic all season with No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa living up to the hype.
There are a million reasons to believe the 49ers can and should win this game at home, but expecting them to beat Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs by more than a touchdown is silly.
Take Green Bay and the 7.5 points and expect a close game that comes down to the final two minutes. Even if things don’t go right, the 49ers could have a late 14–point lead and give up a prevent defense touchdown to give the cover to the Packers.