NFL Week 16 Best NFL Prop Bets: Don’t Back the Dak Attack
Another week in the NFL means another fantastic opportunity to make money in the prop betting market. Some teams are fighting for important seeding, while others are focusing on which beach they want to relax on in the offseason.
A combination of analytics, player quotes, and research have led me to my favorite player prop bets at QB, RB, and WR in Week 16.
Best Player Prop Bet of Week 16 No. 1: Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott Total Passing Yards: UNDER 285.5
Dak Prescott has had an extremely good season. He’s fallen out of the MVP conversation with a few poor performances, but that takes nothing away from what he’s done against most defenses.
Expecting him to throw for nearly 300 yards with an injury to his throwing arm is an unfair ask on the road in Philadelphia. Reports say he has an AC joint sprain, but some doctors have speculated that it’s more likely that he has a rotator cuff contusion.
While neither injury is a good one to have, playing through that rotator cuff injury will be a much more difficult task. I applaud Dak for putting his body on the line when his team needs him the most, but Dallas will look to “Feed Zeke” throughout most of this game while Prescott plays more of a game-manager role.
The Eagles pass defense is very poor, but this line is much too high because of Dak’s injury. Expect a few big plays to Amari Cooper, but we should feel comfortable that Ezekial Elliot will be the main focus on offense in this must-win game.
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Best Player Prop Bet of Week 16 No. 2: Running Back: Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Total Rushing Yards: OVER 73.5
Panthers rookie quarterback Will Grier will be making his first career start in Indianapolis on Sunday which is an added bonus to a prop I already loved the over on.
The Colts should be leading this game for most of the way and even if my projections are wrong about Mack’s explosion against the porous Panthers rushing defense, we should expect an additional 7-10 carries in the 4th quarter that will push him over the top.
Carolina allows a staggering 140.2 rushing yards per game ranking 30th in the league. The only two teams worse are the embarrassing Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals.
Mack has struggled in his past two outings, managing a total of just 57 yards. These poor rushing totals have deflated this line to just 73.5 yards, which is much too low.
He faced the No. 1 and No. 4 overall rushing defenses in those matchups and now gets a bottom feeder defense with nothing to play for. He’s at home and will I expect him to be running out the clock in the 2nd half. Lock in Marlon Mack’s over and be glad you did so.
Best Player Prop Bet of Week 16 No. 3: Wide Receiver: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards: OVER 85.5
Julio Jones just caught the game-winning touchdown with just two seconds left against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15.
With the entire defense knowing he was getting the ball, it still didn’t matter because Julio is an absolute freak of nature. Matt Ryan targeted him with an absurd count of 20 passes, blowing through his previous season-high of 12 targets against the Seahawks.
No. 2 option Calvin Ridley is out for the season, giving Matt Ryan all the more reason to force the ball to his best receiver whether he is open or not.
The Jaguars pass defense is not the same after trading away Jalen Ramsey to Los Angeles and Julio will make them pay the price for sending their top corner to the west coast. Another 100+ yard game from Jones is realistic and we only need 86 receiving yards to hit the over once again.
