NFL Week 12 Best NFL Prop Bets: Beware the Cowboys vs. the Patriots D
Last week was the first serious struggle I had this season, missing on props for Brian Hill and Tyrell Williams despite hitting big on Josh Allen’s over. This week I’m sticking with three big names who will come through for us in different ways.
Here are my favorite player prop bets at QB, RB, and WR:
Best Player Prop Bet of Week 12 No. 1: Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Total Passing Yards: Over or Under 291.5?
Dak Prescott may not be worth the $40,000,000 per year that he reportedly wants from Jerry Jones and the Cowboys, but he finds himself in the top 5 of the MVP conversation with the big year he’s having. With 3,221 passing yards and 21 touchdowns in just 10 games, he’s silenced many of his haters.
But this week he’s in a giant world of trouble.
Dallas heads to New England to face Bill Belichick and the record-setting Patriots defense. They have allowed just 153 passing yards per game this season, carrying Tom Brady to a 9-1 record. For comparison, the Lions defense that Dak lit up last week to the tune of 444 yards and 3 touchdowns is giving up 289 yards per game.
I can’t imagine anyone besides die-hard Cowboys fans truly believing it’s likely that Dak throws for 292 or more yards in Foxborough this Sunday.
I’m locking in the under as my favorite bet of the entire week and possibly the entire year.
Best Player Prop Bet of Week 12 No. 2: Running Back: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Total Rushing Yards: Over or Under 62.5?
Joe Mixon has had a disastrous year for the winless Cincinnati Bengals who are playing for nothing but the #1 pick in the NFL Draft. Despite the down year, Mixon is guaranteeing the Bengals will make the playoffs in 2020 as he said this week, “Of course. Nothing but great results. Like I said, I’m going to guarantee us playoffs.”
I love his confidence, however unrealistic it may be. To be fair things have been trending in the right way for him personally since Ryan Finley took over at quarterback, rushing for 66, 114, and 86 yards these past 3 weeks.
The Bengals will continue to force-feed their best player the ball, leading to at least 63 rushing yards. Lock in the over, even if we get stuck watching him rush for barely 3 yards per carry as Cincy falls to 0-11
Best Player Prop Bet of Week 12 No. 3: Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Total Receiving Yards: Over or Under 83.5?
3 catches for 38 yards on 8 targets. Those were the numbers put up by Amari Cooper in Week 11 despite Dak Prescott throwing for 444 yards against a porous Lions defense.
Patriots shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore is expected to shadow Amari Cooper everywhere he goes on the field. Hint: Players who get shadowed by Gilmore usually have terrible days.
This may be the worst matchup for Cooper in his entire career and I can’t find a single reason to expect him to finish with over 83 yards in Foxboro. Following the same logic as my Dak Prescott under, we hammer on Amari having a solid but unspectacular game as he helps cap off a 3-0 week in the player prop market.