NFL Week 11 Best NFL Prop Bets: Focus Your Action on Chicago
Last week I stated that one of the easiest and most underrated ways to make
money betting on football was in the player prop market. I had a ton of success again, going 2-1 with my official picks.
We won on Frank Gore under 35.5 rushing yards (he ran for just 12 yards on 5 carries), and Allen Robinson over 64.5 receiving yards (he caught 6 balls on 9 targets for 86 yards) while taking a loss on Mitch Trubisky’s passing yard prop of 230.5 yards despite his three touchdown passes (this is the danger of betting in general; the Lions’ offense was so bad without Matthew Stafford that it affected Trubisky’s total passing yardage numbers on the day; Stafford plays, we win that bet going away).
With that being said, a 2-1 week is still going to get you money and we’re looking to improve on this numbers this weekend, taking advantage of a some teams at the bottom of the standings and latching on to a fresh new running back in Atlanta. Without any further ado, on to my favorite NFL player prop bets of Week 11.
Best NFL Prop Bets of Week 11: Quarterback: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Total Passing Yards: Over (-112) or Under 204.5?
Josh Allen, the 2018 No. 7 overall pick, threw for a career-high 266 passing yards in Week 10 against the Cleveland Browns. In Week 11 he gets to face the lowly Miami Dolphins who—despite coming off two straight wins—are not a team to be scared of.
As I predicted last week, Frank Gore has been sent to the bench and the Bills offense is looking to throw the ball more and more with an upgraded offensive line and one of the league’s most underrated receivers in John Brown.
The Dolphins defense is atrocious but is actually near the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, ranking 19th in the league at 244.9 per game. A big reason for this is that teams have been able to just run the clock out late in the game with giant leads, but Buffalo is favored by less than a touchdown in Miami.
Don’t expect 300+ yards from Josh Allen, but we can be confident he’ll still be throwing in the 4th quarter as we lock in OVER 204.5 passing yards.
Best NFL Prop Bets of Week 11: Running Back: Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons
Total Rushing Yards: Over (-112) or Under 61.5?
I feel like the bookmakers just checked how many yards Brian Hill had last week and decided to make that the total for week 11. He carried the ball 20 times for 61 yards last week against New Orleans as the Falcons have been destroyed by injuries. Lead backs Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are both injured, paving the way for the little-known back out of Wyoming to get the start.
Fun fact: He played with Josh Allen in college who we also are betting on this week
It’s an all-time great situation for Hill, who should easily exceed 61.5 rushing yards if he gets anywhere near the 20 carries he had against New Orleans.
The Panthers defense is close to last in the NFL, allowing a staggering 136.7 rushing yards per game. With nobody else to get the carries, Brian Hill can win us money even with a sub-par performance.
We’ll cash in on over 61.5 rushing yards as the books are too slow to catch on to the situation.
Best NFL Prop Bets of Week 11: Wide Receiver: Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders
Total Receiving Yards: Over or Under (-112) 55.5?
I’m a big fan of Tyrell’s game, but he’s in a horrible spot this week. The Raiders get the Cincinnati Bengals at home which sets up to feature a lot of Josh Jacobs, especially in the 2nd half.
Williams has exceeded 55 receiving yards just once in his past six games as Darren Waller and now even Hunter Renfrow are dominating the action. He may find himself in the end zone at some point because Derek Carr loves to look for the 6’4 receiver when they are inside the 10-yard line, but a short touchdown won’t lose us our bet.
Take Tyrell Williams to finish with less than 55.5 receiving yards as Derek Carr repeatedly hands the ball off on the way to victory.