Why Patrick Mahomes Heads our List of NFC & AFC Championship Best Prop Bets
NFC Championship Game:Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers——–>Click here for the full preview game
AFC Championship Game:Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs——–>Click here for the full preview game
The Super Bowl is the biggest prop betting event of the year, but there is still plenty of money to be made taking advantage of player props during championship week.
We’re probably all going to be glued to our TVs for seven hours of football on Sunday and I’m going to enjoy every single minute of it. I predicted a Patrick Mahomes vs Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl before the season started and we just might get it.
A combination of analytics, research, and other factors have led me to my favorite player prop bets at Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver this week.
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Best Quarterback Prop Bet: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Total Passing Yards: OVER 302.5
Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP and has had the best multi-year start to a football career we’ve ever seen. He has revolutionized the sport in a way most people haven’t realized yet but will start to after he leads his team to the Super Bowl with a victory on Sunday.
Mahomes has Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and a coach in Andy Reid who has decided to give up running the football in favor of letting his quarterback throw the ball on almost every single play. 8 of the team’s 21 rushing attempts came with a 20–point lead late in the 4th quarter. Reid has realized that his best player should be the one with the that will lead to an abundance of passing attempts against the Titans.
Scoring over 50 points while throwing for 321 yards was just the beginning, and we’re likely to see another prolific day from the MVP.
Take over 302.5 yards and watch him throw the ball around the field against an overrated Titans passing defense.
Best Running Back Prop Bet: Derrick Henry, Kansas City Chiefs
Total Rushing Yards: Why we’re taking UNDER 109.5
Derrick Henry has been an absolute beast these playoffs. He carried the ball 34 times for 182 yards against New England and 30 times for 195 yards against Baltimore. He even threw a touchdown pass while knocking off Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 seed Ravens!
If we go back another week, he ran for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns on 32 carries in a Week 17 must-win against the Houston Texans. These all sound like fantastic reasons for the average bettor to bet over against a Chiefs defense that allows 126.2 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but we’re going the other way.
Fact: Derrick Henry didn’t get much better at football in the past month. He’s an extremely gifted running back who’s happened to have the best games of his career come when the entire country was watching.
In 16 regular-season games, Henry surpassed 109.5 rushing yards just 4 times.
In the 2018 season, he did it twice.
Best Wide Receiver Prop Bet: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Total Receiving Yards: Why we’re taking OVER 81.5
This one is simple: Davante Adams is by far the Packers best receiving option and Aaron Rodgers is going to force-feed him the ball as often as he possibly can.
Adams lit up the Seahawks defense for 160 yards last week, but it’s become a habit for him. He’s had 93 or more receiving yards for four consecutive weeks and I see no reason for that to stop.
Richard Sherman will take him one on one for most of the game, which actually is a beneficial matchup for Adams. A below-average corner would be getting a 2nd defender in help on most plays, but Sherman will try to shut him down by himself.
Back in the 2014 NFC Championship, Sherman held Adams to just 1 catch for seven yards. Despite a great season, he’s no longer that level of shutdown corner and Davante has blossomed into one of the league’s best receivers.
Aaron Rodgers will give his best player a chance to make plays throughout this game. Richard Sherman and the 49ers defense may win many of those battles, but 82 or more yards won’t be too tough to reach.
Derrick Henry is an absolute beast, but what he’s been doing in unsustainable. Expect Tennessee to feed him the ball, but don’t expect an otherworldly performance for the 4th week in a row. Henry can have a fantastic game running for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Heck, he may even throw another touchdown pass!
That would be a game worth celebrating for the former Alabama running back, but still not enough for the over to cash.