Darren Heitner

Why The Miami Dolphins Over Under 2019 Prop Bet Is Enticing

How the Miami Dolphins Over Under Wins 2019 Prop Bet Can Go Over

The Miami Dolphins franchise appears to be fully committed to a tanking strategy in 2019. Whether the Dolphins are “Tanking for Tua” [Tagovailoa], the quarterback for the Alabama Crimson Tide, or another top quarterback such as Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the organization at least seems to be fully committed to obtaining as close to the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft as possible.  

In fact, the club, through various trades, including the recent shipment of offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Houston Texans, have further stockpiled picks (importantly, another 2020 first-round pick from the Texans). Thus, even if the Dolphins do not end up with the worst record in the 2019 NFL season, despite the team trying its hardest (which coach Brian Flores will not admit), it will have the ammo to try to trade up for that coveted first overall selection. 

All of this information is important for bettors who should be closely following the fluid nature of the Dolphins 53-man roster. The Dolphins organization has moved what feels like half its players as of late, including linebacker Kiko Alonso, who racked up 125 tackles and 3 interceptions in 2018. They have been replaced by names that most fans have never heard of before; who have amassed unimpressive stats and would likely not play on any other team, but they will be fighting for their professional lives. 

Take the Dolphins to Cover Over 4.5 Wins in for the Dolphins Over Under Wins 2019 Bet

Line creators are hammering the Dolphins, as they should. However, a few things should not be forgotten about this organization and its scrappy bunch of players. 

First of all, as stated above, the Dolphins will put many players on the field who are not sold on a tanking strategy. They will be fighting to not only stay on the current roster, but also make an NFL roster for years to come. For others nearing the end of their contracts, such as defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, they will be trying to put up big stats to either negotiate extensions or find new opportunities with competing teams. The bottom-line is that the Dolphins will likely play close in many games, with players fighting to show that they have what it takes to remain in the league. 

Second of all, the Dolphins are still in the AFC East, where the competition remains subpar. Most sportsbooks have the Dolphins over under wins 2019 prop bet at a 4.5 for their regular season win total. Both the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are also projected to end the season losing more than half of their games as well, with the New England Patriots’ win total set at 11. It is not a stretch to believe that the Dolphins will take at least 1 win from each the Bills and the Jets during the 2019 season, and the Dolphins always seem to be a roadblock for the Patriots (Tom Brady is 7-9 against the Dolphins in Miami).  

That could make for three wins against the AFC East alone, so where will the other two wins come from? The schedule includes matchups against the New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts (minus Andrew Luck) and what could be a lackluster Cincinnati Bengals team. There could be two wins within those three games. Further, you never know whether the Dolphins show up in a big national game such as the October 28 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The better win total bet for the Dolphins over under 2019 2019 is over 4.5 wins. 

Stay away from falling in love with the Dolphins Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens

It is going to take some time for all of the pieces to fit into place for the Miami Dolphins, and the team may never look like a cohesive unit at any point in 2019. For certain, the team, made up of a bunch of players picked up on the waiver wire and recently traded from other teams, will have chemistry issues. They will be on display Week 1 against the Ravens. 

6.5 points is a lot to receive for the first week of the season, but the Ravens have a healthy quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will use his legs to torment the front line of the Dolphins defense, along with Mark Ingram, who will be giving that d-line fits throughout the game. More importantly, expect the defense to swarm an offensive line that lost its best player (Tunsil)and features quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrickwho won a stiff competition against Josh Rosen just to earn the starting role. 

The Ravens, giving up 6.5 points, may be the safest bet of the first week of the regular season. 

Don’t fall for the Christian Wilkins prop bets during his rookie campaign

Rookie defensive tackle Christian Wilkins will be given every opportunity to shine during his rookie campaign. Part of the reason will be due to his sheer talent, but it will also be a byproduct of the Dolphins hemorrhaging its roster doing into the 2019 season. While the aforementioned Godchaux will be busting his butt to earn new contract, Wilkins will be trying to demonstrate that he will be a mainstay of a rebuilt Dolphins club for years to come. 

That said, even though Wilkins is getting +4400 for Defensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel Sportsbook, stay away from the bet. It is probably an even longer shot than the odds provided that Wilkins comes anywhere close to the being in the discussion. He should rack up tackles and be one of the few silver linings on an otherwise dismal team, but the fact that the Dolphins should not have more than 5-6 wins this season should further prevent Wilkins from being a real threat to winning the top rookie award. 

What about Wilkins’ sack count? Defensive ends typically rack up many more sacks than defensive tackles, but in college he showed his capacity to get to the quarterback. In 2017, he had 5 sacks and he followed that up with 5.5 sacks in 2018. FanDuel is offering a 3sack line, with the over offering -115 and the under providing -105. Take the under. Offensive lines will have their eyes on Wilkins and linebacker Jerome Baker. While Wilkins is expected to have a lot of tackles, 3 sacks may be 1 sack too many for the rookie in 2019. 

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Darren Heitner

Darren Heitner

Writer

Darren Heitner is the Founder of HEITNER LEGAL, P.L.L.C., where he serves as legal counsel to some of the most successful athletes, sports agents and other individuals and companies. He is the founder of Sports Agent Blog, a niche publication that covers the entirety of the sports agency industry. Darren contributed to Forbes for 6 years and Inc. Magazine for 4 years, covering the business of sports. He wrote published 2 sports law treatises published by the American Bar Association.