Boxing megastar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (53-1-2, 36 KOs) returns to action this Saturday night. He looks to take the WBA and Ring Magazine super-middleweight titles from undefeated Callum Smith (27-0-0, 19 KOs.) Alvarez will be defending the WBA World Super Middleweight Championship for the first time in an attempt to unify the belts.
Ahead of the big bout at the Alamodome in San Antonio, below are the talking points to factor in before you place your bets.
We usually discuss power in these previews in the form of knockout percentages and this preview is no different. Despite the massive experience gap in favor of Canelo,Smith comes out ahead in this category 70% to Canelo’s 68%.
This isn’t too much of a disadvantage though as Canelo is the favorite for good reason [Canelo: -650, Smith: +425]. This is due to some of the same things discussed in our last boxing preview for Triple G’s return–experience and quality of Canelo’s opponents.
Also, whatever power he gives up to Smith he makes up for by being one of the greatest combo punchers of all time. His answer to Smith’s power should come in the form of body shots but he is a threat to your body and head regardless.
Smith has the edge in height (6’ 3 to 5’9) and long arms meaning we should see some things from odd angles. His jab and right straight are expected to win him some rounds, but this one should be more in Canelo’s favor as the fight goes on.
Tom Gray told The Ring magazine, “Canelo will have to work to get inside Smith’s rangy jab and take the risk of being hit by something massive from both sides. If he’s pedestrian with his pace, as he was against Kovalev, then he could fall behind and be forced to play catchup.
The issue I have is that this fight was confirmed very late. Smith will have been training for it physically, but could he really be 100-percent locked in for the biggest fight of his life before it was officially signed and sealed? A Smith knockout is a possibility, but Canelo has looked bulletproof under fire, so I see this one going the distance.”
Other sites are predicting this fight ends in roughly nine rounds, but we think the youngSmith will at least hear the final bell.
Prediction: Canelo defeats Smith by unanimous decision